We've had a real interesting season with all the injuries to star players and rookies, and the hectic trade deadline. There is about 5 weeks left of games which will be even more hectic as stars come back to try to make the final push to the playoffs. There are some teams in similar and very intriguing situations this season as we go into the playoffs. Here, I am defining a star as a top 5 player on a team (this is slightly subjective). Please let me know if I have left out anything blatant. Teams W/ No Major Injuries (Stars Haven't Missed More than 10 Games): Atlanta Teams W/ Injured Stars That Have Missed 10+ Games And Have Already Come Back: Golden State (Bogut - 14), Toronto (DeRozan - 21), Dallas (Parsons - 10), Washington (Beal - 20), Charlotte (Walker - 20), San Antonio (Parker - 14, Leonard - 18) OKC (Westbrook - 15), New Orleans (Davis - 12), Portland (Lopez - 23), Memphis (Randolph - 10), Houston (Jones - 43, Beverly - 14) Teams W/ Injured Stars That Have Missed Significant Time And Are Planning On Coming Back: Chicago (Butler - 10, Rose - 19, Noah - 11), Indiana (George - All), Houston (Howard - 31), LA Clippers (Griffin - 13), OKC (Durant - 36), New Orleans (Holiday - 28, Anderson - 13, Gordon - 21) Teams W/ Injured Stars Out For The Season: Milwaukee (Parker), Miami (Bosh), Portland (Matthews), Cleveland (Varejao) A couple things to note: -Cleveland essentially replaced Varejao with Mozgov -I did not include Boston, because they suck, and I don't see them making any noise in the playoffs regardless if they make it -I also did not include Phoenix. They are 3 games out, and have been mostly healthy, but just went through a major roster change -Portland just got Afflalo luckily before Matthews went down -Portland's Aldridge opted to play through an injured finger in which surgery would've kept him out significant time -Other major trades: Dallas got Rondo, Memphis got Green, OKC completely changed their bench -Houston picked up Smith What do we make of all this? The Hawks have been the only extremely healthy team throughout the season. To me, the most interesting group is the 3rd: Injured stars that are planning on coming back. Houston and OKC, and even Indiana, are by far the most injured teams with players planning on coming back. You also have other elite teams such as the LA Clippers and Chicago who will most likely have players returning right before the playoffs. I've got my eye on those 4 teams: Houston, OKC, LA Clippers, and Chicago, to potentially surge late in the season as their stars come back and make a push to the finals There is of course, the wild card of George coming back and playing for a 7/8 seed Indiana against Atlanta/Cleveland/Chicago Discussion questions: Who is the favorite right now? Golden State/Atlanta? How will the reigning champs do? Are there any teams that you are already counting out of making the conference finals or finals? Can teams such as Dallas, Memphis, and OKC develop enough chemistry with their new additions before the playoffs? How does the loss of Matthews/addition of Afflalo affect Portland? Is it possible that the missed time of players for Houston, OKC, LA Clippers, and Chicago could be a blessing in disguise, giving them rest before the playoffs? If George returns and Indiana makes the playoffs, could they upset a top seed? Opinions on other teams (New Orleans, Toronto, Washington, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami)?
i think that before we count on a boon from a missing player, we need to examine how the team has fared with and without that player. for example, houston may not expect to be significantly improved with howard back in the lineup. same with chicago and rose. there is also the chemistry issue. we've seen how dallas has struggled after adding rondo, and re-adding a significant player just before playoff time could have similar impact as well. i expect that okc and lac will have easier times integrating their injured players due to long term roster continuity, and that okc's new players will also have an easier time fitting in due to the strict role definition in that system (something that works against them in the playoffs routinely, btw).
Who is the favorite right now? Golden State/Atlanta? To me, it's definitely the Warriors. How will the reigning champs do? Before the all star break, I probably would have said a first round exit. They've been playing well lately though. Tony Parker sucked for a while and he's playing well again. I think they're making the WCF. Are there any teams that you are already counting out of making the conference finals or finals? Every team in the East with the exception of the Hawks and Cavs. West is a bit harder to determine. If Mavs cling onto a playoff spot, they're gone in the first round. I don't think Blazers will make it without Matthews. Etc etc. Can teams such as Dallas, Memphis, and OKC develop enough chemistry with their new additions before the playoffs? Yes to Memphis and OKC. Dallas is doomed. How does the loss of Matthews/addition of Afflalo affect Portland? Hurts them. Afflalo isn't as good as Matthews. Is it possible that the missed time of players for Houston, OKC, LA Clippers, and Chicago could be a blessing in disguise, giving them rest before the playoffs? Possibly? Yes. If George returns and Indiana makes the playoffs, could they upset a top seed? I don't think so. Opinions on other teams (New Orleans, Toronto, Washington, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami)? Anthony Davis is a beast.
