Jaxson Hayes Discussion: He's Back

You have a real shot to be his agent, contact him ahah

I think it would be crazy if he got that. Almost no teams have cap space available and the ones who have, shouldn't want to spend that kind of money on him. That leaves the NTPMLE. Each team that is eligible to have it, only have 1, so spending it on him would mean you can't spend it on other guys. This is usually the most important signing of such teams. Can't see a team where he's the biggest FA signing.

That leaves the TPMLE, which I think is what he can be aiming at and makes sense for him. Still don't see a ton of teams lining up, but we would be gambling a bit if we offer less and he may want to test the market. Not sure about Atlanta cap situation, but if they lose Capela, they may look to Hayes.

If I had to decide today, I would offer a little bit below the TPMLE, selling that he finally found a place in the NBA, that he will play with Luka throughout and this contract being a precursor of an even better contract in the future, as he cements his place. And that 6 months ago he never expected to make 10/15 million in his next contract. Maybe a 3y that gets down to a 3y with a PO in last year.

 

That is just plain wrong. He is an above average NBA player this year (VORP/BPM), putting him comfortably in the top 50% of NBA players.

You left some players out.

I'm going to leave Horford and Valanciunas out for this comparison because their situations aren't remotely similar to Jaxson. I'm also leaving out Mobley because he's on a rookie deal. He extended for $200M+ last year. That leaves these players in the $10M to $20M range, around the same age.

Wendall Carter Jr. (25)
- extended for 3 years $59M ($19.7M per year)
- averaged 11.0 pts 6.9 reb year prior

Zach Collins (27)
- extended in 2023 for 2 years $35M ($17.5M per year)
- averaged 11.6 pts 6.4 reb year prior

Onyeka Okongwu (24)
- extended in 2023 for 4 years $62M ($15.5M per year)
- averaged 9.9 pts 7.2 reb year prior

Isaiah Stewart (23)
- extended in 2023 for 4 years $60M ($15M per year)
- averaged 11.3 pts 8.1 reb year prior

Moritz Wagner (27)
- extended in 2023 for 2 years $22M ($11M per year)
- averaged 10.5 pts 4.5 reb year prior

Goga Bitadze (25)
- resigned in 2024 for 3 years $25 ($8.3M per, 4.5x raise)
- averaged 5.0 pts 4.6 reb year prior

Jaxson is at 6.8 pts, 4.7 reb for the season with a significantly higher TS% than any of the players above. He's trending upwards in March/April with 12.8 pts 7.8 reb.

You're suggesting he gets paid $4M per year. You be the judge if he's only worth 20% to 50% of the players above.

None of those players can offer anything remotely close to what Jaxson does.

Note that most of those players are over the hill. Under the new CBA, teams need to extend young quality centers before they hit the market, making a player like Hayes valuable to teams like....

Exactly, Trae leads the league in lobs. Capela is washed and they could be looking for a replacement. Shai is second in lobs. OKC could use a Jaxson Hayes off the bench, I'm sure. Then there's the Knicks. Brunson is excellent in PnR's and the Knicks wants to play KAT at the 5 to hide his deficiencies on defense. On and on with scenarios where Jaxson Hayes would thrive in.

The point being, his skillset is quite rare and a lot of teams could offer him a contract. It's not wise to low-ball him when the team with the greatest need of a high-flying center is the Lakers. Jaxson and his agent are aware that the Lakers are desperate. And Jaxson will continue to thrive with Luka/Lebron/Reaves in the playoffs jacking up his value to onlookers.

 

Sorry, too tired to reply after the long post above.

 

No worries. Just think your analysis is based on what you perceive is Hayes abilities, while most contracts sans the max are more based on cap space dynamics and team needs.
Like, you mention OKC. They have no cap space and no way they use a full MLE on Hayes with Hartenstein and Chet already there.

 

I don't think so. A lot of their FA decision making could be based on how the playoffs play out. What if we either beat them or take them to 7 games with lobs to Jaxson being effective? Presti could decide to weaken us by signing Jaxson while adding depth to their front court, considering how often Chet is injured.

 

i do think a team could try to weaken us by signing hayes, and this is also why i'm pretty sure our initial offer will at least be above tpmle. if some team uses its full MLE on hayes, i'm guessing we let him walk, ariza style and in the same vein have someone else willing to take the contract offer we made to him already lined up.

our trend under rob has been identifying the likely poaching range, offering something above that, and capitulating on player options as the primary means of conceding. guessing it will be the same here.

 

Really good analysis. I especially liked your breakdown of stats and contracts on comparable players.

Jaxson is averaging 9/6 since AD got traded and thats improving every month since. I expect him to be a 10-12 point scorer, a 5-8 rebound guy while getting 1-2 stocks a game. He’s also not a bad passer when he’s rolling to open guys.

I think that’s probably worth something comparative to what those other guys got. If he is that player and has a good playoffs, 6 to 8m would be a decent outcome for both parties. This also makes our team building a little harder.

 

I actually agree with both sides of the convo going on here. Hayes is a role player and definitely, as a big, would garner around that 6mil range. However, history has shown when a player exceeds expectation playing with great players (Bron/Luka/AR) with stats another team is likely to overpay that player. IMO, as the team continues to gel I think Hayes will be close to a doble double guy which definitely would help his stock.

If someone overpays then we let him walk.

 

Yeah I get that and if Jax continues to fit like this, wouldn't bother me that much to pay a couple million more, depending on the impact in our cap space and future moves (like those couple millions put us over the apron or screwing an MLE).

I thought in paying less the TPMLE because we can sell that he either wants a little less in a stable environment that he finally found and a secured role or a bit more money and a new city and team where he can fit worse and lose space.

It will depend on the market landscape that will be more clear in June

 

I think we should be wise to consider an old Larry Bird comment here.

Then double that take when factoring in Luka. We can find other Jaxson Hayes types, without overpaying them.


https://www.sportscasting.com/news/why-larry-bird-refused-trade-any-lebron-james-teammates/

Judging by Mark Williams recent play, he would look like a borderline all star here, playing with Lebron and Luka.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/mark-williams-last-10-games

 

I think his next contract will be dictated by how he plays in the playoffs.

 

didnt realize they played together, lol probaby a trip having a former teammate as a coach thats fairly recent.

 

I thought he was injured?

 

I pretty much agree with you and I used to fight your point myself. I quit fighting. If people are really over the top in my opposite direction, I just block them. And that is one of the reasons I came to this site. Other sites don't let you do that. That being said, around here, I will often show ignored content, when I feel up to the stupidity of it all. Beyond that, I find a lot of people who I disagree with, are still a lot of fun. I don't really care if I don't agree with them, I would likely have fun drinking some beer with them. It's only sports man, there are way more important things going on in the world, if you want to be pissed off.

 

It is a little hard to wrap you head around the fact that our coach was playing with one of our young guys, not too long ago. JJ just seems like pure coach material to me.

 

Feel the world would be better if we argued more about sports and less about well everything else the way the world has changed

 

Top half and top 1/3 are very different things. Which is it?

I capped it at $12m cause the $9-12m window is the closest to the NTPMLE window. Not sure why we're extending it to the $20m marker. All those are better except for Collins and maybe Bitadze (although he was an advanced stats darling in the summer and has mass...size pays and if we had AD starting, I'd rather have him as the backup over Jax).

Cause that's his worth. These comps are also based on this year's salaries. Want to look at next year...cool. Carter is still only making 10.8m next year

That's false. If you're going to cherry pick limited stats for Jax like you are, you should take a hard look at Richards. 10/9/1/1 with PHO in 22 mpg. His per 36 are LOUD. Those numbers aren't "remotely close"? That's just hyperbolic for s***s and giggles.

"Most" are over the hill?
Day'Ron Sharpe: 23 years old.
Kevon Looney: 29 years old.
Al Horford: 38 years old.
Steven Adams: 31 years old.
Naz Reid: 25 years old.
Myles Turner: 28 years old.
Clint Capela: 30 years old.
Brook Lopez: 37 years old.

Since when is 3/8 "most"?

I agree teams are going to be looking for cheap, young centers. Which is why they will draft them hoping for the next Lively, Ware, Messi vs paying $10+m for Jax. They'll take a swing on Maluach, Newell, Sorber, Toppin or Beringer instead.

Also regarding the new CBA: fewer teams are using their MLE, instead their holding onto it to use as a trade chip at the deadline.

They already replaced him with Okongwu. They're just getting off some of their bad money and have to give Jalen a $26m a year raise. They're going to jump into paying a backup C $10m+...no.

That's not what Presti does. I don't foresee him deviating from his style for the likes of Hayes. What about Jaylin Williams?

So KAT is making $53m next year, Robinson is at roughly $13m, but they're going to commit all their money in another $10m+ center who does not fit with Thibs AT ALL? OK. They only have 7 NBA level players on their roster next year, they have bigger needs.

I'm still waiting for one that is realistic.

More bigs will be lining up to take a cut to play here than teams lining up to sign Jax.

Also...guess who his agent is? Luka's agent. Guess who that agent is more concerned about? Luka.

 

Watching the game now, Jaxson's rim protection is underrated. The Nuggets are getting nothing around the basket.

 

C'mon, Hayes has been huge for the Lakers but it's only because the absence of Hayes means this team has no other competent center.

Len, Koloko, and Trey aren't playable more than 10 minutes per game.

It's just so noticeable without him because the Lakers are running thin on centers.

 

Well, neither really. I originally said he was better than 300 out of 496 players. That's more like 40%. You brought up 1/3 and 1/2.

I capped it off at $20M for comparison sake. I also only included players with similar ages.

We don't have AD anymore. Being a lob threat on offense and having quick feet on defense is more important than size.

Also, keep in mind that most of those contracts were extended in 2023. We are talking at least a 10% jump in average salaries 2 years later.

OK, we can disagree here.

OK Richards maybe, but again, you have to go back to 2023 when Charlotte extended that contract. He was raw, still is to be honest. Maybe a better rebounder, I'll give him that much.

Advanced metrics still favor Hayes. He's a much better defender.

Richards
Less than 5ft. 66.3
5-9 ft. 42.3
10-14 ft. 48.7
15-19 ft. 42.7
20-24 ft. 40.7
25-29 ft. 35.7

Jaxson
Less than 5ft. 60.6
5-9 ft. 37.5
10-14 ft. 34.2
15-19 ft. 35.8
20-24 ft. 35.1
25-29 ft. 33.3

Those are staggering numbers. Jaxson is disruptive and just a beast on defense.

Yes, most are over the hill - old and past one's best.

Check these guys stats, they have dipped considerably over the last 2 years.
Looney
Horford
Adams
Capela
Lopez

So that's 5/8, and we don't have a shot at the other 3 either so I'm not sure what to think of them for this discussion.

That's an interesting take, but I feel you're underselling Jaxson again. He is proven and better than any rookie, come on.

Okongwu is 6'8 and the lack of vertical threat to pair with Trae is hurting the Hawks. They will be looking for a Jaxson Hayes type of center, i have no doubt.

Presti will do whatever necessary to improve his team, like any competent GM would do. If he can weaken us that is an added bonus.

The issue with KAT's defense is well reported. They want to move him to the 4. As I mentioned above, Jaxson is an excellent defender. Hopefully other teams haven't noticed.

All of them are. They have a need at the 5 for different reasons.

We'll see. Now back to the game.