Jaxson Hayes Discussion: He's Back

You can add “ifs” to half of the NBA and word jazz them into being an All Star.
The dude puts up numbers on one of the worst teams in the League- great.
So did Drummond, for years, and he was an awful big man for us when he played.
Embiid is supposed to be one of the best bigs in the League, but is always injured. Ask Sixers fans how it’s worked out.

 

Jaxson has the highest WS/48 on this team. (higher than Lebron) Let that sink in for a minute...

 

Tada just posted a great post about what Hayes is doing and has been doing. Hayes is benefitting from Luka, Austin and Lebron because he is a great pick setter, determined roller and a above average finisher around the rim (especially on lobs). His energy and willingness to mix it up make the game easier for our big 3. So yes it is BAD TAKES when people diminish what he brings to the table as nothing more than feasting off Luka's greatness.

I know it is hard for some fans to get past the point that every player on the team can't be an all time great at every position but roll players are just that roll players. Great ones excel. This is the same fanbase that still calls Luka fat, talks about trading Austin, complains about the coaching staff and is ready to trade anyone on the team for some mythical "he'd be so much better with us" player after one bad game by one of our guys.

I am not the arbiter of good and bad takes. I am a person with an opinion on what is a bad take. And the fact is simple, what some of the post in here are saying about Hayes is, IMO, bad takes. If your take fits that criteria, in your mind, then yes to me its a bad take.

 

People don't get the importance of solid/great role players who know their roles and try to excel at them. AD was a #1 guy and demanded the attention of a #1. We had a lot of ups and downs with it. Hayes knows he isn't the #1 guy. He plays like a guy who is fighting for what he can get. He plays with fire, energy and effort. He is a role player and in that he is killing it for us.

I mean since we traded AD, not saying its because of AD, we have been one of the top defensive teams in the league. It has only suffered with Rui/Bron being out and other guys having to play bigger minutes. Hayes has been a big part of our success.

 

All this PLUS the improvement playing under JJ effect AS WELL, like every other young player we have this year, is where the it’s TOTALLY only the Luka effect falls flat on its face. But don’t dare tell “that” guy because he has his sacrosanct opinion (wrong as it may be and don’t insult him with facts).

 

I think no one here is discrediting Jax. He's been good for us lately, fits really well what JJ is trying to do and his playing to the best of his potential. But he is still Jax. Same guy that never established his position in a team and earlier this season NO ONE wanted him here and he lost space as a BACKUP.
Not to admit that Luka and this new Lakers are the reason he's playing better is wrong, imo. Because he was barely out of the rotation before and now is an established starter. So to say he would start in other teams is just not true because a) he wasn't and b) we have a pre and post-Luka data and the only accurate conclusion is data he only starts if it's in the Luka team.

But as I posted in another thread, he's still average on his contributions. He has more games with 4 or less points than with +10 since he's starting. More games with 1 or 0 rebs then double digits. Averaging 10/6. He's not a shot blocker too, though he improved from 0.4 to 1 per game, which is good but average in the C position. I also don't think he's an elite screener, as you or tada said, at least on the eye test. He's an elite roller for sure and his so quick and jumps so high that he's an elite lob threat for sure, but those are separate things.

He's definitely the best center of the roster with this system, and brings good stuff to the table, especially verticality and the ability to defend wings and guards that match our defensive system. That's valuable. He's also in probably the best moment of his career and full of confidence, which is all great and leads to better performances. Doesn't mean he's all of a sudden a starting caliber center. Nothing indicates that, not even is current numbers.

Again, I'm really happy with him and definitely want him back next season as a very valuable backup center that we know fits our system. Still would like to have a Mark Williams-type starting center. Duren, Claxton, Sharpe, Capela or Richards look like they could bring a little bit more to that position, especially in rebounding and/or paint protection.
But Hayes is definitely improving and can change the conversation depending on how the postseason goes. It will be a big test for him, can mean many more millions in his wallet.


On that stat above, you can't say he's elite when he's the 21st on the category you're using. There are 30 teams lol

 

I respect this take.

But, I think to be a starting C in the league you need to, well, start. He does. I think people (not you specifically) confuse starter and all star caliber players. We don't run plays for Jackson. He has "some" moves but nothing any coach would be like "dump into Jackson and let him go to work!" The thing is a player doesn't have to be great when it comes to stats. He has to be great when it comes to fit. Jackson fits what JJ is doing and we are excelling with it.

Now, when we talk about his play prior to Luka I for one take into consideration what a player was being asked to do, how they played with/against their particular strengths and how much time they got to play and develop. Jackson wasn't given lots of minutes and the Lakers offense ran much differently before prior to the AD trade. I find it hard that so many of us fans don't see that style of play is just as important as ability to play.

In the end, I don't go by stats (just like JJ talked about one of our young kids being huge for us yet only had 2 or 4 points) I go by the eye test. Jackson sets quick screens, Luka/Bron/AR will attack, Jackson rolls and the defenders are left chasing both. He is a great screener because he sets the screens our guys need. When he needs to set a hard screen he does and does it well too. Again, I determine elite by what is needed for THIS team.

In the end I didn't Jackson was this great player. I simply said that peeps need to stop diminishing what the kid is doing by saying its all cause of Luka. Someone took it personally and made it bigger than it was. Just like AR being the best #3 option we could aske for I think Hayes is just the type of C those top 3 guys need.

 

One thing that impacts his numbers is that JJ really limits his minutes. I have feeling JJ is saving him but that my rose colored glasses and JJ seems to want to his defensive guys going full bore in the minutes they have so he tends to have a longer rotation when this team is healthy

This could be considered both a positive for him (his per minute number have to be really good) but also a negative (the best roleplayers are guys who you can play big minutes).

I've been a fan of Jax this year and I have the receipts in this thread showing that was even Pre-Luka but he's going to be polarizing as he's got literally an elite 99% skill in the lob threat and does some other nice things well, is improving, but he's got big holes as well. He makes the most sense as a platoon guy - man if the Lakers can just find a guy like Horford that would be ideal. Another guy who needs his minutes limited overall and is a good defender/shooter.

 

Great points puff. There was this great set of videos year ago on Bill Russell talking about leadership, and to paraphrase the premise of those videos; great teams are made up of parts that are put into positions to succeed and sacrifice across the board on things like roles and stats.

Jax is a great example of being put into a position to succeed. He needs to set screens and roll hard on the offensive end.

Defensively he needs to provide some kind of size, while being able to defend the pick and roll well by being a credible switcher. It’s working for us.

My question is how much to keep him?

 

Interesting stat

 

He's in the 4-5M range IMO.

 

hasn't always been said role players play better at home than on the road?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he secures a contract in the range of $10-13M per year.

 

Yeah, I said I'd try to do a 3 for $13m, if it's a 3 for $15m... that's fine too.

If he gets to that range, I tell him and his agent job well done and wish him well.

Personally I'd be shocked if he made the jump from min to ten. What he does here and the infrastructure we have around him is something that cannot easily be replicated except for maybe a few teams -- elite p&r/lobbing ballhandler + big forwards next to him.

 

Who is going to pay him that? It definitely won't be us..be serious.

 

The average NBA salary is $10.3M this year, probably $11M next year. There are 496 NBA players under contract and Jaxson Hayes is better than at least 300 of them.

True, it is in the best interest for both parties to resign him as he fits perfectly here, but are you willing to let him test the market and lose him by low-balling him?

I am serious.

 

If we’re being honest, anyone who performs well won’t be on a vet min as a young guy. That’s usually reserved for veteran ring chasers or guys who’ll be out of the league soon.

I think a TPMLE is kind of the base for lots of salaries these days which is that 5-6m range and the full MLE is the upper range for good role players which is that 13-15m range.

Most likely Hayes wants the later, whereas we want the former. I believe we’ll give him 3 years around 24-30m - only because salaries always surprise me. Which is probably an ok deal, but we do lose the great value he is generating on a minimum contract.

 

Exactly.

 

He's not in the top 33% of NBA players, he's just not. 33% of the league makes over $10m (32.8 but I rounded). 50% of NBA players makes $5m or less. THAT is his value.

That's not low-balling him, that's paying him his worth and not paying him at an insane 4-5x raise. Teams aren't paying that kind of money for bigs. Only 6 centers are making that $9-12m range:
Goga, Horford, Jonas, Mobley, Wendell Carter

ONE center is making above $6m and under $9m. Looney and that's it.

Here are the centers making $4m-$6m (excluding rookie contracts):
Drummond - $5m
Richards - $5m
Drew Eubanks - $5m

I count 21 centers making between $2m-$4m.


Now let's look some at the bigs this summer who are hitting FA:
Day'Ron Sharpe - RFA
Kevon Looney - UFA
Al Horford - UFA
Steven Adams - UFA
Naz Reid - PO
Myles Turner - UFA
Clint Capela - UFA
Brook Lopez - UFA

Only two of those guys are seeing north of $10m and that's Turner and Reid. They'll get north of $20m easily. Everyone else is under $10m. I think Capela is probably the most expensive and he's between the two exceptions...probably 8m-9m. Now there's a chance both Horford and Lopez get grandfather deals that overpay them on their current teams but that's has no significance towards the market as a whole.

 

I’de love to add Aquaman.
We won’t have enough to pay for Turner nor Naz.