Jarred Vanderbilt Discussion: The Vandalorian

This fools gold IMO based on conclusions from a small sample size and confounded by not adjusting for opponent strength/luck. Opposing coaches would adjust to this pretty easily and effectively. You have no lob threat with this combination on offense and you have no rim protection from either guy on defense Rui lack of rebounding will impact the defensive impact of this duo as well. Vando overall rebounding while good for forward does not have much VAR especially with Hayes properly slutted into the backup role

The dream of Vando will never die sigh. BTW Great post though I disagree with the conclusion

 

Yes, these are small sample sizes since we are less than one-fifth of the way through a season. However, our eyetest opinions for this season are also based on this small sample, and considering the data is better than eyetest alone. I'll look back at last season when I get a chance, but my memory tracks similarly to the current findings.

Nobody is saying that Vando is the answer to everything, or even if he'll be playable in the playoffs or not. The jury will be out on that until then. But in the regular season, we need productive PF/C minutes, as the past 14 games have shown. LeBron is back now, but there will be injuries to various players in the future, and Vando will be needed.

The bar is not, is Vando starter level, or even 20+ min/gm level next to anybody on the floor without considerations as to who. The bar is simply, is Vando a positive for 10+ min, in certain lineups during the regular season? And the answer clearly seems to be yes so far. (And has been in past years as well, by memory, and will try to confirm later.)

There's not much of an alternative anyway. Nobody's saying Vando is untouchable, don't trade him. He doesn't have much trade value at his current contract. If you could trade him for better, then by all means, let's do so. But barring a better alternative, his production next to Rui or even Ayton for 10-15 min/gm has been quite good and should be going forward as well, at least during the regular season.

 

I’ve seen Vando completely change the outcome of games for the positive MANY times as a Laker. That’s just what I witnessed with my own eyes. He still holds value for this reason alone.
Yes, Rodman was a much better rebounder, but he often missed easy put backs at the rim. He was terrible on offense and often airballed free throws. I’m not saying that Vando equates to Rodman. Both were/are awful on offense but brought strong value to the teams they played/play for when used properly.
Rudy is an awful, awful offensive player. Yay! He can occasionally complete a lob pass dunk. This by no means, makes him a good offensive player. Dude has zero post game, no jump hook, no floater, no elbow jumper. He’s trash. Oh, and he deserved maybe one of those DPOY “awards.” AD covered more positions and was much quicker in getting to spots.

 

This reminds of that Jim.Carrey so there is a chance meme. We have to slice and dice to get Vando 10 minutes a game maybe with a very fixed situation where rim protection and rebounding aren't important

Im very skeptical about this lineup working and I think people are forgetting opportunity risk here. If we have to work this freaking hard to make Vando work then what about other players. Those Vando situations folks are willing to concede are not like playoff ones!

With Gabe back JJ is smart to try to use those valuable minutes for a player who could be valuable in playoff like situations. And you have Laravia and Smart as well. This isn't last year where JJ doesn't have options for defense.

 

Who said Rudy was a good offensive player? You're arguing against a false caricature He is a lob threat and that one move killed the Lakers last year. Plus not matter how overrated he is on defense he is no question a far better defensive player then the guy who are comparing him to in Vando. Vando has no offensive ability at all and hes a worse defender then Gobert

This Rodman stuff is also insane. You get really upset about the Ayton shaq comparison and the gap between rodman defense and rebounding is similarly that big.

The eye test also shows for this team Vando has been failing badly this year. The talent and makeup of teams is different and on a Luka team his fit is terrible

 

You know Vando is struggling when Kleber stole his minutes 2 games ago and he didn’t play against Utah at all.

I really like the thought of Vando, but it isn’t happening for him until this moment. Something I read that was interesting is; Vando is quite good at navigating screens but when we employ a switch heavy scheme, it negates some of the disruption and hustle Vando brings.

Offensively he is a real negative.

 

i'd argue we should play less switch and employ more vandos who can navigate screens and recover. switching is what gets the other team's best on-ball offensive player in space against luka or reaves.

honestly, it's more that the game is played so much differently, imo. you called rodman a good finisher before but...not sure i agree. on offense, he could pass (a little) and offensive rebound. that was about it. that said, his obpm was better than vando's by a good sight, probably because of the insane offensive rebounding AND screen setting (the latter is something all unskilled offensive players including vando should focus on, imo).

but rodman's big advantage on vando is that he could play at that pace for 40 minutes and never look tired or get hurt. vando gets hurt regularly and can't play his game for more than 20mpg, imo. he also doesn't have the lower body base that rodman did, which allowed him to transition from a sf to a pf/c as his career progressed. but vando's defensive presence in the time he's out there is very much like rodman's. the imperfect advanced stats we have would say it's actually substantially better, but i wouldn't go that far, just like i wouldn't go as far as the offensive stats that favor rodman.

anyway, if dennis rodman showed up in his prime today, i'm not positive he's the same guy in this league. the complete inability to shoot or dribble would cause him similar problems to vando's inability to shoot. and with individual post defense not as high a priority, i think he's a 20mpg player instead of a 30+.

 

He needs to be traded.

 

I don't understand what the Vando-detractors think can realistically happen. What is a realistic trade for Vando that gets us something better than the minutes Vando has given us this year?

 

No, what killed us last year was not having a credible big man after the AD trade. We were playing G-League bigs. Rudy would have been ineffective against any number of League Average Centers, like Mark Williams.
You are completely missing the point regarding Rodman. I never said “Vando is putting up Rodman numbers.” I only used him as an example to show how an offensively challenged player can positively affect a game.
When used with the right combination of players, Vando has impacted wins. I don’t care how much people want to dismiss this fact because I’ve seen it. It’s happened before and it can continue to happen if JJ and staff can figure it out with this current group.

 

i think, in a vacuum, his 12 million could be spent on guys that fit better. but it's moot, as the length of his contract means we can't just obtain that money to go get two more laravias or whatever.

but yeah, i'm not sure where "he needs to go" comes from, nor the kind of relentless attacks on a guy we play for 15mpg and figures to be a situational guy in the playoffs. so yeah, he should probably be paid a little less than he makes, but he's not killing the team-building or anything.

 

In a vacuum, I agree. But realistically, as is, afaik there is no trade that gets us better than what Vando has given us. I'd be happy to be shown otherwise.

As is, he can give us 10-15 good minutes. With Vando/Rui minutes having been factually better this season than Ayton/Rui or Hayes/Rui minutes, despite what the detractors may think.

 

The bolded is exactly right. The only players we should be constructing lineups around to maximize their value are Luka, LeBron and Austin. A role player's job is to fit around their stars, not the other way around.

Go back to what JJ said last year when the team went on that run after the Luka trade. The biggest advantage in the NBA regular season is effort. Most teams do not care enough about individual regular season games to really gameplan for them. Most teams just want to show up in Charlotte on a Tuesday night, run their basic sets/coverages, and get out of there without any injuries. That's why Vando can be a positive force in some regular season games - he plays with an energy level that most other guys don't match in the regular season and teams don't care enough to exploit his obvious weaknesses. That has been true going back to the fabled 18-6 run in 2023 after we made the trades. If you actually go back and look it at, it mostly happened because we played a bunch of teams that didn't really care anymore, we played with a higher effort level to try and get into the play-in, and the whole team shot the hell out of the ball after not being able to make a three the first part of the season. The myth of Vando as this super impactful player stems from that 18-6 run, but even then the teams that actually cared enough to gameplan against him (guard him with a center that completely ignores him, use that center as a helper and weakside shot-blocker) completely nerfed the offense of that DLo/Austin/LeBron/Vando/AD lineup.

What we need is to turn Gabe/Kleber/Knecht turned into someone that can be a Top 8 rotation player so Vando can be a DNP-CD like he was last night when everyone's healthy. I don't mind him at all as someone you throw out there for 10 minutes if other guys are hurt. But we don't need to go through another whole season of trying to think of lineups to put him in only for him to be unplayable in the playoffs. Because that is what is obviously going to happen.

 

I don't get this Rudy angle - Rudy is a DPOY center who the TWolves are struggling to figure out if they can use him the playoffs! So why struggle with trying to fit in Vando who is worse than Gobert on both sides of the ball?

Yes if the only example I can find is a historically great rebounder (maybe the best ever considering he's non-center) and one of the greatest defensive players of all time. It's not a good comparison

It's frankly not worth JJ's time - there is no indication that with Luka team that Vando will be playable in the playoffs - work on others

 

Yeah, gloves off; trade his non-shooting, often injured, non-shoot*** a** to Siberia.

Don't care.

 

At his contract price, who are the takers unless you are giving away additional assets?

 

nobody, hence my post above. i think the fixation on vando's shortcomings is odd, tbh. we can do nothing about it; he occasionally helps the team. we have guys ahead of him. in the future, he probably gets traded as an expiring, but for now, he's a situational player who actually DOES have strengths that really aren't duplicated on the team.