Great point regarding the Luka factor. I can easily see us being as good on offense as that Dallas team, especially once Luka and Ayton start clicking. It’s the defense that worries me. In order for us to be top 10 here, we need Smart to play the majority of the games and be 85% of what he used to be, Ayton to be focused for every single game as our anchor, Rui to get better, Gabe to hit enough shots to be our second best small defender, LaRavia to take a step forward, and Vando to remain healthy all season long. Maybe not all need to happen, but most do in order for us to stay in the top six by season’s end. That’s the seed I’m hoping for with this squad. Now, if Rob pulls off a masterful trade at the deadline, my expectations will increase.
with lebron out, we don't really have a vocal defensive quarterback, which concerns me. gabe and vando lead by example but aren't the kind to get everybody else organized. atyon's never been that, either. so jj will have to do a lot of this work from the sideline, which is harder. maybe luka picks up somewhat here. he has the hoop iq to do it, but he's never been super vocal in that way. though his slovenian teammates said he was talking more this year than ever, so maybe he's ready to step up in this way, too.
The only way this joke gets funnier is if Kleber actually plays 50+ games, contributes to wins and becomes an important part of our rotation. At that point I spoke it into existence haha
I forgot he was on the team. The game I caught part of, I don't remember him playing. No idea what our starting lineup looks like, but it makes me tingly that Lebron isn't in it.
Seems Gabe has won the 5th starting spot with his stellar play this preseason with Smart closing. Gabe / Smart Reaves / Knecht? Luka / Vando Rui / LaRavia Ayton / Hayes Smart was nice last game. Gabe, Vando, Ayton, Rui, Smart and Hayes all seem to understand their roles well. LaRavia has looked a little lost so far and I wonder if DK has just played himself out of the rotation totally so far? The first 15 games or so will determine who goes to the bench when Lebron comes back, is it Gabe or Rui?
Here is the depth chart and all the lineups JJ played last night. (listed mainly in defensive order) Vincent (29)/ Smart (19) Reaves (35)/ LaRavia (9)/ Smart (4) Luka (40)/ LaRavia (7)/ Reaves (1) Rui (35)/ Vando (12)/ (Luka (1) Ayton (34)/ Hayes (14) 1Q 12:00-7:03 Vincent/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 4:57 -1 7:03-5:00 Smart/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 2:03 +0 5:00-3:54 Smart/LaRavia/Luka/Rui/Ayton 1:06 -2 3:54-1:54 Smart/LaRavia/Luka/Vando/Hayes 2:00 -3 1:54-0:00 Smart/Reaves/LaRavia/Vando/Hayes 1:54 +0 2Q 12:00-8:51 Vincent/Reaves/LaRavia/Vando/Hayes 3:09 +0 8:51-8:38 Vincent/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Hayes 0:13 +0 8:38-6:57 Vincent/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 1:41 +0 6:57-5:44 Vincent/Smart/Luka/Rui/Ayton 1:13 +2 5:44-2:46 Smart/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 2:58 -3 2:46-1:08 Vincent/Smart/Luka/Rui/Ayton 1:38 +5 1:08-0:00 Vincent/LaRavia/Luka/Rui/Ayton 1:08 +1 3Q 12:00-5:56 Vincent/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 6:04 -16 5:56-2:41 Smart/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 3:15 +4 2:41-2:23 Smart/Reaves/Luka/Vando/Hayes 0:18 -2 2:23-0:00 Smart/LaRavia/Luka/Vando/Hayes 2:23 +4 4Q 12:00-9:48 Smart/LaRavia/Luka/Vando/Hayes 2:12 -3 9:48-8:41 Smart/Reaves/LaRavia/Rui/Hayes 1:07 +0 8:41-7:50 Vincent/Reaves/LaRavia/Rui/Hayes 0:51 -2 7:50-0:39 Vincent/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton 7:11 +6 0:39-0:00 Vincent/Smart/Reaves/Luka/Ayton 0:39 +0 These are small sample sizes, as it was just 1 game, but here are a few observations anyway. Obviously the biggest thing to jump out is the opening of the 3rd quarter, where our starters got murdered by -16. This unit did close out the game and bring it back to just a 6 pt game, but it wasn't against GSW's full starting lineup. GSW had been up by double digits most of that span, and had Jimmy and Dray on the bench. When we brought it back to 6 pts, Jimmy and Dray went back in, they increased their lead to double digits again, and closed it out. Most other lineups held their own, which is encouraging. The first sub in is Smart for Vincent, with the lineup of Smart/Reaves/Luka/Rui/Ayton going +1 in 8:16 minutes. I think this lineup should be the starting unit until LeBron comes back. Right now Vincent starts and closes, while Smart plays the other minutes. If you flip it, that should yield better results. The Center rotations makes sense with Ayton starting and closing, and Hayes playing the other minutes. But I was surprised that JJ never tried any small ball C minutes with Rui. I'm not saying that I want a lot of them, but if there were a game to do it, this would be one of them, given that GSW mainly used Dray and Horford at C. I'm worried that JJ is already overusing Luka. 41 minutes was not necessary. The 1st half made sense, with Luka playing 10 min to start, then taking a 5 min break at the end of the 1Q/beginning of the 2Q, then closing the 2Q for 9 minutes. And in the 5 non-Luka minutes, the team held their own, going break-even +0 with Austin running the show. (mainly with all the backups too, like LaRavia/Vando/Hayes) But in the 2nd half, JJ strayed from this rotation, perhaps due to the desperation of being down 17, and he played Luka for 14 min the entire 3Q and beginning of 4Q. Luka only got a 2 min break in the entire 2nd half. During which time the team went -2, nothing crazy. JJ needs to stick with the rotation he used in the 1st half, with Luka playing 9-10 min to open and 9 min to close, for around 36 max/game. Austin and team can hold their own against benches at the end of 1st/3rd Q's and beginning of 2nd/4th Q's. Although this game looked terrible at times, the minutes outside of the opening of the 3rd quarter were fine. With LeBron, we likely would have won this game. Without him, I'm expecting to lose the next game, and then go roughly 50-50 after that. Hopefully it's enough to stay in the mix, and then with LeBron, win enough to stay out of the play in. I think for LeBron's minutes and games, you follow the Dodgers plan of load managing their starting pitching and then peaking in the playoffs. Hopefully with a similar outcome so far.
excellent work! i went to bed before halftime fully expecting that 3rd quarter opening run, unfortunately. to me, that's the coaching advantage kerr provides (or disadvantage redick provides, depending upon your perspective). agree that 40+ minutes for luka in a season opener is a bad look, and again, speaks to a coach who's not taking the long view. this is ironic because he punted the preseason. to me, if you punt the preseason, you keep luka to 34 minutes in this one, particularly when you spend the entire second half down double digits. the minutes i'll be watching are laravia vs. vando. i think there's really only room for one in the rotation when lebron's here (maybe when he's not). which one and how and why?
JJ has LaRavia playing backup 2/3 and Vando playing backup 4. If JJ sticks with Ayton & Hayes playing all the C minutes, then when LeBron comes back, this doesn't leave many minutes for Vando, whereas LaRavia can still get backup 2/3 minutes. The best use of Vando imo is with a small ball Rui /LeBron at C lineup for 2-3 min at the end of of the 1st/3rd, and 2-3 min at the beginning of the 2nd/4th. For example, a lineup of Smart/Reaves/Vando/LeBron/Rui should be good against bench units with backup C's. That unit is relatively balanced in terms of offense/defense. That yields 8-12 Vando min that would come mainly from Hayes & Ayton. Something like Ayton (30), Hayes (8), Vando (10). Vando would be a wing helper who can switch 1-5 on defense (with LeBron and Rui guarding the other team's backup big men), while Vando would functionally be a C on offense, largely in the dunker spot, with 4 other players who can shoot the 3. The overall depth chart (viewed defensively) would be something like: Smart (28), Vincent (20) Reaves (34), LaRavia (14) Luka (34), Vando (10), LaRavia (4) LeBron (30), Rui (18) Ayton (30), Hayes (8), Rui (10) If JJ insists on starting Rui, then it would look (defensively) more like: Reaves (10), Smart (18), Vincent (20) Luka (10), Reaves (24), Smart (10), LaRavia (4) Rui (10), Luka (14), Vando (10), LaRavia (14) LeBron (30), Rui (8), Luka (10) Ayton (30), Hayes (8), Rui (10)
I don't think Smart plays 28 minutes. Maybe in postseason. Until then I don't think he goes for more than 24, probably more like 22. Those 6 minutes put Vando in the 16-18 range, which I like. There's always an injury here and there where he can end the season at 20 avg
