Austin Reaves Discussion: How Much Is He Worth?

Not a horrible idea, but alas, I doubt we see Lebron acquiesce to that scenario.

 

No, I would say the odds are better we don't get snow in Alaska this winter.

 

You get Putin next week ... anyone got a plan for the snatch and arrest?

 

Learnt a new word today - acquiesce.

“Reluctantly, LeBron James, the Senior, acquiesced to Toklat’s plans.”

 

I think if I’m being completely objective, if we have a healthy and durable Luka, Reaves is no longer untouchable. If he’s not healthy or durable, we’d miss the heck out of Reaves. But if not, it’s not inaccurate to say that potential 30+ mil could be spent on other great fitting pieces.

There is some skill overlap there. If Luka is playing 35+ minutes, are we taking full advantage of Reaves skill set? I think we find out better this year with the new pieces.

early returns seemed to indicate it might work, but this is a new team. Lebron will continues to to take a step back we think, but lots of new pieces to integrate.

 

i will repeat that luka's two best teams had brunson and irving on them--both score-first ballhandling playmakers. reaves is only superfluous right now because lebron is here. so for now, you wish reaves was young kcp. you won't wish that when lebron has left/retired. you will instead be trying to trade the entire non-luka roster for someone like austin reaves.

 

I don't know..Austin has to play better in the playoffs IMO. A lot is at stake, for a lot of guys this season. Outside of Luka, If we don't make a deep run, everybody's tenure here, is up in the air.

 

It all comes down to matchup resilience for Austin. We know he can put up really nice regular season numbers. That's great. But can he a reliable second scoring/creating option for 4 straight playoff rounds when opponents are more focused/physical and throwing tougher defenders at him? I just think it's going to be really hard for him to be that guy post-LeBron with his physical profile.

 

At low-mid 30M range he may remain 3rd option. Not out of realm of possibility Ayton stays also and is good enough to be 2nd option. And my guess is he too, if he does well here in a desired location for him …. may also take less than market value.

 

this. if he's paid 30, that means we have room for another guy at the same level. minny is paying randle, mcdaniels, and naz reid all around that number.

 

He can if he gets calls. It'll be tough if he doesn't.

There is positive correlation between his FTA and his pts obv, but also with his 3's. I assume it opens up more of his game when he is getting calls.

Past data shows reason for optimism in the future. When not playing with LeBron, his everything jumps, including his FTA, up to 6.7, which is top 10 itl.

 

I know it’s come up a few times, how well Austin performed as a 2nd option or 1st option when our stars were out. But I’m always hesitant to extrapolate data from a small data set… especially when it’s the regular season and teams haven’t planned exclusively for AR. In the playoffs we can also take data that Reaves has struggled with physicality - if he is the second option he’ll see more of that.

To summarize, I don’t think he’s as good as the data suggest as a 1st or 2nd option - because then he’d be a top 20-30 player in the NBA.

 

I guess we'll find out someday, but I think the same thing would happen with Austin that happened with Brunson, if given the role.

 

I’m happy to give him the opportunity, I don’t think we need a second star around Luka. Just get solid role players. Reaves, Rui, Ayton is a great start. If we could get 3 more we’d be in a good spot.

 

i'd like it if rui/ayton were our 5th and 6th best players. ideally, you get one more guy at reaves's "level", both salary and impact, in a complementary role to reaves/luka (this is basically jaden mcdaniels*). then you get one more player who's two-way and slightly more valuable than rui (this is my keon ellis** slot)


*is rj barrett a possibility here? can we convince him to defend? they've got scottie barnes and ingram at the forward spot already; seems crowded. he's the kind of player i'd eat cap space and trade the future firsts for, tbh. this is the C Bags' derrick white level, imo.

**ellis is probably going to be out of range; plus i'm sure the kings would pay him 40 million if they found out he might sign with us, lol. but someone at this level. this slot is the nuggets' aaron gordon or cam johnson.

basically, i'd emulate the C Bags/nuggets title teams, with 6 really good players eating most of the cap, most of them being young, two-way guys around your star(s).

this is neither the 3-star and vet mins nor the 10 guys who are all playoff-able way.

pay structure would be

35% luka
20% reaves
20% player A above
20% player B above
15% rui
15% ayton

then tpmle and vet min/draft picks, with the hope your tpmle hits and you have at least one playable vet min or developmental guy.

yes, i know the percentages add up to more than 100, but the idea is that you'd be over the cap if you're contending. the path is to use FA flexibility in the short-term to get one of player A or B, then use consolidation trades to get the other.

the percentages above probably put you right around the first apron, which seems to be the sweet spot for contenders right now.