Luka Doncic Discussion: Lean Mean Slovenian Extension Machine

I don’t think Phoenix and Portland are in that 4-9 tier, they’re most likely in the 10-12. It’s just the west is so damn tough.

Good points on the 27 extra wins. Just take 2 wins off every team in my example. The ish I used at the end of every prediction is doing the heavy lifting here.

 

He signs the extension and goes right back to eating wings?!?!

 

I honestly don’t care where we land, as long as it’s within the top six.
The most important things are health, team chemistry, and being amongst the best defensive teams going into the playoffs.

 

It's the 1st offseason of Luka, Bron and JJ. That can only bring good things.
JJ is a psycho and I'm sure he's spending the summer drawing 100 plays and counters to maximize both.
They had to build chemistry on the fly and while 2 of the best IQ in the league ever, they never played with such a similar guy ever, so it takes time to learn.
I'm a bit worried by Bron's motivation and engagement with the team, but he's not stupid and I hope he sees the unique opportunity to increase even more his legacy. Winning a chip over 40 while averaging 25-7-7 would take his legacy to another level.

I also would like for us to have more set plays and draw stuff for the role players. Get Rui a couple looks on the block with a mismatch, get a couple open looks when Gabe, LaRavia or Knecht check in, so they get into the game and keep defenses honest. Luka and Bron should draw so much attention that they should manipulate the defenses into getting great looks for the other guys.

I think we can be one of the best offenses ever with the personnel we have, it's an insane amount of offensive talent in our big 5, we gotta be amazing there. I only remember this level on KD Warriors and the big 3 era. That will force teams to adjust to us and help mitigate the defensive gap we will have.

 

i want to see luka have to do a bit less on the ball and move around a bit off it. no coach has either tried this extensively or been able to get luka to buy into it, but he can be a threat to catch and shoot or cut, not just the most terrifying outlet valve off other actions like he is now whenever he's off the ball.

i used to make the same complaint about lebron in our various offenses, too, though, so this may be a hope that goes unfulfilled. i just think it's so strange that top-shelf stars MUST be on the ball at all times. i get that in key situations, you don't want to risk the turnover trying to get them the ball, but it could make everyone's life easier for portions of the game to not just have luka orchestrating out top.

anyway, hopefully, we see some creativity out of jj. tbh, he'll have to do well to make it past year 2, if recent history is our guide.

 

https://www.theringer.com/2025/08/0...-lakers-contract-extension-weight-mens-health

this one's pretty good and kind of compares luka to shaq in terms of conditioning and problems surrounding it. i think chau isn't wrong that shaq was arguably a better player when he was a bit heavier, and the best we've seen luka play in his career has actually been when he's been supposedly out of shape (23-24). it will be interesting to see if a) he stays in shape and b) being in shape does much to his game or his availability. i think the very last part is probably the key, and it seems to be what luka is talking up about his change in approach--not that he thinks he'll play better, but that he'll play more/longer.

 

Agree, esp w this last part. I think getting in shape is mainly internal motivation after the trade as well as conversations with JJ, but the playing more/longer is largely due to JJ. I'm starting to get a little bit concerned about JJ playing him too many minutes, actually.

After initially ramping up when coming back from injury after being traded here, Luka averaged 37 min in March, with a median of 38. Meaning that half his games he played 38+ min.

In the playoffs, JJ played him 41.6 min. Sure, it's the playoffs, but that's more than Luka has ever played in the playoffs. And after that, JJ started talking about his conditioning and needing to be able to play more minutes. Which Luka is reflecting in his comments below.

Anyway, I'm fine with him at 35-36 min, but I hope he's not at 38+ min, which would be more than anyone has played in the last 10 years, not even Thibs' players.

 

yeah, i'd like him capped under 36 for the regular season, but i think i'm more interested in getting that 64 games played number up closer to 70+. low 60s is AD territory (and, as i mentioned a lot back when AD was here, not that far off from many big names, unfortunately).

all nba types:

SGA played 76 games last year. but only 34mpg.
jokic 70 at 37mpg.
giannis 67 at 34mpg.
tatum 72 at 36mpg.
ant 71 at 36mpg
brunson 65 at 35mpg.
hell, james harden played 79 games last year at 35mpg.

lebron and reaves were 70 and 73 at 35mpg.

anyway, if luka wants the hardware (and a better team record), he needs to get his numbers to about those spots. in 23-34, he played 70 games at nearly 38mpg. that's too many minutes, imo, and is probably related to why he broke down the following season.

some combination of better conditioning and some coaching restraint can get him in line with other star numbers, and he outproduces everyone but jokic during those minutes.

 

Again, totally agree. I think that's very doable though. Besides this past season, he averaged 69 games over the other 6 seasons.

(In 2020, he played 61 out of 75 possible games due to slightly shortened covid season, which translates to 67 games. In 2021, he played 66 out of 72 possible games, again due to slightly shortened covid season, which translates to 75 games. So, per 82 games, his seasons went 72, 67, 75, 65, 66, 70.)

So 35-36 min over nearly 70 games would be almost perfect.

However, this one factor that you mention has me slightly concerned.

As mentioned, in March, JJ had Luka averaging 37.1 min, Austin 36.6, and LeBron 36.8. If we want to bring LeBron's minutes down, then JJ may play Luka and Austin too much. We'll see.

 

Or we could shoot for the Wilt model.

In the 1961-1962 season, he averaged 48.5 minutes per game.

 

https://tenor.com/bbgN3.gif

 

Fatty needs cardio after his hot wings stint

 

It’s Wilt was better he wouldn’t have needed those extra overtime minutes to have won games.

48.5 is less impressive than 48.0 with no overtime if you think about it

 

I think an ideal Luka build with what we got now would be
Luka
Nembhard, Black, Hart
Herb, Dort
Trey Murphy, Keegan Murray
Ayton

Can we get there? We have 3 picks next year. There's some resignings coming for those guys and teams may not want to do it and trade for expirings
I think if we get one of each with Thiero and LaRavia coming off the bench and a vet or 2 and it's a championship team, imo

We need 3 dogs on the wings around Luka and Ayton. I like that build without another superstar

 

I like it, it's great on defense, but lacking in playmaking and offense outside of Luka, could see it getting bogged down. Even ignoring the difficulty of getting so many of those guys, I still prefer a mix - for example, I think a Luka, Reaves, Herb, Trey, Ayton lineup is better than a Luka, Nembhard, Herb, Trey, Ayton lineup.

 

luka's best teams had a secondary playmaker (in both cases, one that wasn't great on defense, a la reaves). the other three spots need to be guys who can defend, though.