Austin Reaves Discussion: Overachiever Who Underachieved

sirronstuff · May 26, 2023

LTLakerFan said: ↑

In one of his recent or the exit interview he said (one of his few areas of focus) for the new money was going to be “whatever the family needs”.
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Hey Fam

KareemtheGreat33 · May 27, 2023

PurPle n GoLd 1 said: ↑

Ar everywhere

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that explains all the lemon daddy references I have been seeing lol

JSM · May 27, 2023

On the most recent pod with Anthony Irwin and Aaron Larsuel (reminder: works for Lakers), Aaron said he thinks AR's market value is between $17m-$20m a year. That doesn't mean that's what other teams think or even everyone in our FO, but does give a general idea of what the front office thinks his market value is heading into this summer.

Lakers have done a really solid job of leaking their intent with AR (and Rui), so it will be interesting who is willing to lock up their money for someone they have no chance of signing.

LTLakerFan · May 27, 2023

Still for four days too.

JSM · May 29, 2023

From Stein's chat Friday

Bryant · May 29, 2023

ZenMaster · May 31, 2023

I was the first (I believe) to say "i see a little Manu in him". (I also sawJoe Ingles, so it's an Australo-gentinian mix).

Context: was bored out of my mind and went through this thread from the very beginning.

sirronstuff · May 30, 2023

ZenMaster said: ↑

I was the first (I believe) to say "i see a little Manu in him". (I also so Joe Ingles, so it's an Australo-gentinian mix).

Context: was bored out of my mind and went through this thread from the very beginning.
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Manu was very smooth though. Austin is decently smooth, but he also draws fouls because he's a little herky jerky too.

JSM · May 31, 2023

Sam Quinn on what AR's deal can look like, who can make a run at him and who's a fair salary comp

Breathe a sigh of relief, Lakers fans. There is almost no chance that you're losing Austin Reaves as a restricted free agent. The Lakers can match any offer sheet and almost certainly will. In fact, the rules actually favor them in the short term. No matter what the Lakers wind up paying Austin Reaves overall, his pay for next season is going to be capped at around $11.4 million thanks to the Gilbert Arenas provision. The bad news? His salary could jump up to as high as $38 million in the last year of the deal, depending on how much he makes.

Here's the short explanation: as the Lakers only have Early Bird Rights, they cannot pay Reaves more than 105% of the previous season's average player salary. All told, that means the Lakers can only offer Reaves around $53 million over four years. Other teams, however, are not limited by this restriction. They must make Reaves an offer the Lakers can legally match—which would start at that $11.4 million figure and rise only slightly in the second season—but those restrictions lift in the third and fourth season of the deal, when he could make anything up to his max. For teams with cap space, this isn't especially cumbersome. The total amount Reaves could get as a restricted free agent is roughly $99 million over four years, but a team signing Reaves with space could format that deal in a more traditional structure because they are not bound by Early Bird Rights. But the Lakers? If they match such an offer sheet, the deal has to be backloaded to abide by the Arenas Provision.

In the grand scheme of things, this is probably a net positive for the Lakers. Lowering Reaves' cap figure now, while the team is still actively competing for titles with James and Davis, is a higher priority than doing so later. The Lakers can plan ahead for the possible salary jump two years from now, but saving money immediately gives the Lakers more room to retain other key players. The real question then becomes... how much will another team be willing to pay Reaves?

Most of the cap space teams are set in the backcourt. The two that aren't are San Antonio and Orlando. The Spurs can comfortably get up to Reaves' max if they so choose. Orlando would need to save some money elsewhere. The Magic have been linked to veterans like Fred VanVleet. San Antonio could go in almost any direction now that Victor Wembanyama is incoming.

In a perfect world, the Lakers would love to just re-sign Reaves themselves for $53 million over four years. That's a bargain. Reaves will likely explore the free agent market to see if anyone gives him a bigger offer sheet. What's a fair price? There aren't many analogues for Reaves in recent years. Jordan Poole got $140 million largely off of one stellar season as a part-time starter that ended with a solid playoff run, but he was a former first-round pick and has athletic gifts that Reaves does not.

A more logical comparison here might be Fred VanVleet. He got a four-year, $85 million pact from the Raptors after his first full season as a starter in 2020. The cap was lower at that point, but the basic price seems fair. VanVleet had four solid NBA seasons under his belt at that point. Reaves has two. VanVleet was an NBA champion. Reaves is not. VanVleet was a better defender and slightly more reliable shooter, though his overall scoring game wasn't nearly as diverse.

Something in that range is probably fair market value for Reaves, especially in a rising cap environment. It's solid starter money, but not a deal that will ever look especially onerous if Reaves struggles to match his Lakers production on another team. Matching such an offer would be painful for the Lakers in those last two years, but again, the rising cap would ease some of that pain, and the reality that the team will likely be rebuilding by then should give them a bit more financial flexibility to absorb the hit.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...-agents-like-austin-reaves-and-rui-hachimura/
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JSM · Jun 1, 2023

Scotto and Buha on AR's free agency, potential suitors, and his price

Scotto: In talking with people around the league, Austin Reaves’ situation is one of the most fascinating because it appears, essentially, that Reaves is going to get a four-year, $54 million deal the Lakers can offer, or it’s going to take a team coming in at four years, $100 million to really move the needle with a restricted free agency offer sheet. Some executives think he’s worth $80 million (over four years).

Once free agency unfolds, maybe some teams don’t get guys they thought they would get with cap space. Could they make a bigger offer sheet and go up to that $100 million? That remains to be seen. The Lakers will have the opportunity to keep him. He’s not even scratching the surface of his prime. He’s only 25.

A lot of people look at teams around the league and wonder where it would come from. A lot of people try to connect logical dots with Orlando and Fred VanVleet because Jeff Weltman was in Toronto, but I don’t know if I see that as much for him. To me, a guy like Reaves would theoretically fit their timeline more, given the age of their roster and his ability to shoot. I have heard Orlando will look to upgrade their shooting this offseason.

Everybody thinks James Harden to the Rockets has a real shot. But if that doesn’t happen, where do you go from there? Do you make a big offer sheet for Reaves? These are scenarios I think that are plausible, but only time will tell whether they come to fruition.

Buha: The Lakers are going to match any contract offer sheet that he signs up to that $100 million. The Lakers view him as the third-best player on this team if you look at the regular season and postseason he had. He stepped up big time and was basically an 18-5-5 guy with near 50-40-90 shooting splits as a starter for them. There were several factors as to why the Lakers made that second half run, but chief among them – and maybe the biggest factor overall – was Reaves’ ascension.

I think the Lakers are going to retain him. Obviously, their preference would be to sign him to the four-year, $54 million deal. I’ve heard that there are going to be multiple suitors out there in talking with people around the league. You mentioned Orlando and Houston. I’ve heard San Antonio could be a dark horse team that will try to poach Austin from the Lakers.

He’s priority No. 1 for the Lakers this offseason. I think they learned from the Alex Caruso situation. Frankly, I think this would be a bigger disaster than Caruso because Reaves is a better player, and he’s shown more.

You mentioned $80 million, and $80-85 million is where teams think the Lakers might have to think about it and maybe call their bluff. Again, from what I’ve heard from the Lakers’ side, they’re matching all the way up to $100 million
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LTLakerFan · Jun 1, 2023

(smiling happy I heart this Guy)

abeer3 · Jun 2, 2023

san antonio will probably offer him the 4/100, and we'll match.

LTLakerFan · Jun 2, 2023

After we hold up their money for 4 days I’d imagine to hopefully screw them back some if they have any other targets it might affect them getting.

JSM · Jun 2, 2023

LTLakerFan said: ↑

After we hold up their money for 4 days I’d imagine to hopefully screw them back some if they have any other targets it might affect them getting.
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Apparently with the new CBA it's only 24 hours.

LTLakerFan · Jun 2, 2023

OK. Maybe I misread but a week or so ago I thought I'd seen it used to be 4 days and was going to be reduced to 2 days. But still 4 this year. Guess that's way the hell off. Sorry!

KareemtheGreat33 · Jun 4, 2023

Damn it Reaves. Why not rest. FIBA WC will be played here in the Philippines, too.

abeer3 · Jun 4, 2023

KareemtheGreat33 said: ↑

Damn it Reaves. Why not rest. FIBA will play here in the Philippines, too.
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pluses and minuses--remember that these fiba teams are where guys form the friendships that make the super teams.

ZenMaster · Jun 4, 2023

How crazy is that? From undrafted to 100mil (potentially) to Team USA.

OX1947 · Jun 4, 2023

abeer3 said: ↑

san antonio will probably offer him the 4/100, and we'll match.
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that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.

LTLakerFan · Jun 4, 2023

KareemtheGreat33 said: ↑

Damn it Reaves. Why not rest. FIBA WC will be played here in the Philippines, too.
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Is FIBA where HIM was considering playing for Germany …. because of HIM’s brother?

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Austin Reaves Discussion: Overachiever Who Underachieved

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