Quentin Grimes Discussion

i said that's what we're gambling on, not that it's right. but...he (and almost everyone else) was still substantially better than rui.

 

Let’s revisit Rui in a season. You seem to think he is below average, I believe he is above average. Let’s meet this time here next year - pistols at dawn.

 

fair. and i like rui and think there are situations in which he can really help. i'm not sure we're the one, even if he's successful elsewhere.

he's likely to be a bargain, in any case, as i think a lot of the money has dried up.

 

This was as much a JJ pick as it was a Luka one.



I like the player, like the addition. DON'T like him as a starter. He should be the first sub of the bench. He has a bag and can be a good defender in a system, but he can't be our primary defender.

 

we're hoping for the 2023 version of grimes (coincidentally near the time frame referenced in that podcast). since he left ny, it's like he stopped playing defense. but he could/did at some point.

this is definitely the riskiest signing. highest upside, highest bust potential.

 

Unfortunately like a lot of young guys, they focus most of their energy on offense. If you’re a 20 point scorer you’re going to make 200m minimum over your career these days.

If you’re a Vando type, you might not make it past your rookie contract.

I don’t blame them, but it’s frustrating. Grimes knows how to defend. I think him off the bench would be a better situation for us where he can balance his energy to both sides of the ball.

 

i don't know; derrick white ended up making a lot of money by being a swiss army knife on offense and a beast defensively.

they're basically exactly the same size with similar athleticism. should be modeling his game that way instead of after devin booker.

oh wait...i just made your point.

maybe getting the long-term contract will let him settle into the right role.

 

33 percent from 3, wtf are we doing?

 

career 37% from three. you definitely can't or shouldn't leave him open. and he can shoot off the catch or off the dribble. he's a much more serious offensive weapon than say, kennard, despite the % differences.

 

You forgot the Laker shooter curse…deduct 10 to 20%

 

LOL can’t wait to hear this place if that becomes a major thing again with Rui and Luke gone.

 

For sure

JJ had a thing for Gabe strange as it was

 

There was a fantastic analysis I found on Grimes vs Smart on Reddit. Here is the link:



I believe it's worth a look if you care about the deep dive on player vs player. Here are the basic findings:

DEFENSE

When evaluating the replacement of Smart with Grimes, the core question is how effectively the new addition can be at defending the PoA. Both grade as good perimeter defenders, but they earn it a little differently. Grimes is the superior off-ball defender — he navigates screens (97th) and chases shooters (92nd) more effectively. Smart is the superior on-ball, point-of-attack defender: higher isolation defense (92nd vs 86th), and a chasm in disruption — 1.22 passing-lane rate (92nd) and 1.80 steals/75 (87th) against Grimes' 0.47 (20th) and 1.04 (39th). Smart forces live-ball events; Grimes contains his man but generates almost nothing.

Smart didn't just defend well — he defended the hardest assignments (95th-percentile difficulty against 94th-percentile-usage guards). That was a team-need role: with Luka a defensive sieve, the Lakers pointed Smart at the opponent's primary perimeter threat every night. Grimes checked lower-usage assignments in Philly (80th difficulty). Even granting that Grimes is a fine perimeter defender, no one left on the roster absorbs the top-end assignment the way Smart did. It has to be seen if Grimes can fill that role.

The true value for Smart over Grimes is that Smart was actually great for Interior Defense. Smart provides rim and post value no guard should — 98th-percentile rim deterrence and 95th-percentile post defense, a product of elite strength and BBIQ. Grimes offers none of this (16th deterrence), so this is the significant downside of replacing Marcus Smart with Quentin Grimes.

SHOOTING

Nearly identical raw 3PT%, wildly different value. Grimes is a decisively better floor-spacer: 40% catch-and-shoot on 88th-percentile stability, real off-ball gravity (77th vs Smart's 26th), and 81st-percentile shot versatility. Smart launches more threes (83rd attempt rate) on 19th-percentile talent — high volume, low quality, and defenses don't respect him off the ball. That means when Doncic or Reaves drove the basketball, defenses felt comfortable sagging off Smart to crowd the paint, because they weren't afraid of him nailing a 3 when open. And he was open A LOT.

Anything else need to be said? Grimes statistically had a higher 3pt%, but was far less open. His shot quality was garbage, while Smart's was very high. Next to Luka and AR, his 3 point shooting should be much better than Marcus Smart's, which makes up for his inferior interior and help defense.

MOVEMENT

Grimes runs far more off-ball motion — nearly 3× the off-screen possessions and much higher movement volume and attack rate. The one asterisk: his movement scoring impact graded negative (27th), while Smart's was strongly positive (89th) on tiny volume. Read alongside the openness data, Grimes' weak movement scoring is almost certainly a looks problem (contested shots off screens in Philly) rather than a skill problem — his play-type PPP below confirms it.

Grimes adds a rim dimension Smart lacks: he creates rim looks (80th), drives more (68th) and passes out of them well (85th drive-assist rate — a connective skill), and finishes far better (70th vs 35th rim FG%). This is exactly what you want punishing the closeouts Luka and Reaves force.

SCORING

Grimes is the more efficient overall scorer (57th TS vs 33rd). The *off-ball-screen split tells a lot: Smart's 99th-percentile mark is the Lakers system creating value around his cuts and screens — not his shot-making (his stable C&S is 10th) — while Grimes' 15th-percentile mark is contested looks that should invert on the Lakers. Smart retains an edge in the on-ball buckets (isolation 87th, P&R handler 68th), a residue of his secondary-creation reps.

REBOUNDING

Offensive glass is a wash (both hang back — good floor balance next to two creators). Grimes is a meaningfully better defensive rebounder for a guard (68th talent vs 21st), a quiet plus for a smaller team.

SCORECARD

Point-of-attack defense: Smart Moderate
Off-ball / chase defense: Grimes Moderate
Assignment difficulty: Smart Large
Interior / help defense: Smart Large
Shooting & spacing: Grimes Large
Off-ball movement (volume): Grimes Large
Finishing / rim pressure: Grimes Large
Scoring efficiency: Grimes Moderate
Defensive rebounding: Grimes Moderate

• Marcus Smart — an elite, versatile perimeter and interior defender who shoulders the toughest assignment, but a low-gravity, streaky, low-movement, low-efficiency offense. His entire value is defense and assignment toughness; his shooting was poor even on wide-open looks.
  
  
• Quentin Grimes — a 3-and-D movement wing/guard: high-volume off-screen shooter with real gravity and 88th-percentile catch-and-shoot reliability, rim pressure and connective passing on drives, efficient finishing, and solid guard rebounding. His off-ball defense is elite; his PoA defense and interior value are notSmart's, but still a great PoA defender who can fight over screens. Six years younger, and his shooting will likely improve next to Luka and AR.

Pair verdict: A clear slight offense-for-defense trade with an age kicker, but with a much younger player. Spacing, movement, rim pressure, efficiency, and youth go up; PoA defense slightly go down; and interior deterrence go down. The overall-impact gap will probably be neutral-to-positive, because most of Smart's edge is a defensive role the team may replace collectively, while most of Grimes' offense should climb.

Furthermore, I think Grimes (and Mamu) shouldering more of an offensive burden will release some of the pressure off of Luka and AR on the offense, which means they might be able to do more defensively. When AR had a smaller offensive burden, his overall perimeter defense was actually pretty good. In fact, AR got his start in the NBA by being a defender. The scoring came after.

 

That’s outstanding information … thanks Bigly!!

 

So basically Grimes is a true 3&D player whereas Smart was pretty one-sided.

 

I don’t think you can be “true” 3&D when you shoot 33% from 3

 

Grimes is a career 36.6% shooter from behind the arc. As pointed above, his 3PT% suffered last year due to shot quality. When open, (as a Laker) he shoots 40%.