2026 Playoffs: (4) Lakers Vs (5) Rockets - Discussion

Yep. I thought Udoka was better than this, prior to the last year or 2, but apparently he's not. The front office failed the Rockets the most though. How do you know that Van Vleet is out for the year and never add a PG? Pure stupidity.

I do mean to. I'm greedy. And I believe. It's at least a 50-50 game. When Durant was expected to play, I thought we were 40-60 Game 1. Hearing he was out, it flipped to 60-40 in our favor imo. After seeing Game 1, I think if you re-run that game over and over again, we're more like 70-30 or better.

Moving on to Game 2, if Durant is out, then given the different motivations (and the Lakers tendency to let up sometimes when not as desperate), I would still favor us, but less so, maybe 55-45. If Durant is playing but semi-hobbled, like 80% or worse, then it's back to 50-50, and if Durant is 99%, then we're back down to 40-60 imo. Yes, all of this flies in the face of gambling odds and "expert" opinions, but it did for Game 1 also, and look what happened. So, yes, I believe. Let's get greedy.

I can see everything you're saying, and it's possible that those matchups hurt us. But the Lakers definitely have a higher gear. It's called LeBron going super saiyan for one game. He's still capable of a 40 point triple double. We'll see if anything close to it eventually happens or not, but it's definitely within the range of possiblities.

 

I think the idea was they could offset the loss of FVV by playing Sheppard more, Amen growing as a ballhandler and using Sengun as a Jokic-lite offensive hub. Problem is Udoka refuses to do the first one and the latter two just didn't pan out.

 

I agree that this was their plan, I just think it's a stupid plan. Even if all of the above happened - you still need a legit backup PG. Sheppard is a backup PG who was and is not starter quality or expected to be, even if he could play a few more minutes. Thompson is fantastic, but not starting PG quality (while obv near elite SG or SF quality) even if he grew as a ballhandler. Sengun, even if he grows as an offensive hub, would still require a PG bringing the ball up and organizing the initial offense. And even if all of that happened, you need some backup PG minutes. And none of that even accounts for injuries, which every team has to plan for. So the FO never even bringing in a capable backup PG is incompetence. Even if their plans materialized.

 

I don't think we have or had those high odds. In the top 5 players in the floor, 4 are from Houston (Bron vs KD, Amen, Sengun and Jabari). Even without KD, they still have an edge.
2nd game will be even more difficult.

We started this game shooting insane, like 10-12 FG. 64%FG in the first half if not mistaken. We finished with 69% True Shooting, 5th highest in our playoffs history (out of 788 games), that's unsustainable. We really need to turn over less and rebound better. We can't have 20 TOs and suffer 23 off rebs and expect to win.

Then and most importantly, playoffs are a matchup game and there's adjustments each game. We had the 'luck' of playing a new group so Houston didn't had much to prepare. They now have a full game to go over and come back with a plan to counter us. As our group is smaller, we don't have much leeway so odds are against us.

In any case, I trust we will give them another hard fought game and that's the best we can ask for. If we win it, it would be awesome but it's important to understand the context and how much it took to win this first one

 

..... yeah .... BUT what is the combined years of total playoff games played EXPERIENCE these Rockets vs these Lakers even without Luka and AR. HUGE advantage Lakers in this important area.

 

Right, we might not shoot as well, but we might not be quite as bad in rebounds or turnovers either. They had 21 o-rebs and we had 3. That is atrocious, even by Lakers vs Rockets standards. That's 18 more possessions. In the 3 games we played this season, the Lakers got out o-rebounded by 15-12, 12-5, and 17-7. Those are deficits of 3, 7, and 10, instead of 18 in this game. That's a massive discrepancy, where 10 possessions can more than make up the difference of not shooting as hot. And it was not due to Luka or Austin, who combined for just 1 o-reb across all 3 of those games.

Same thing with turnovers. We had 18 and they had 13, for a deficit of 5 possessions. In the 3 games we played this season, we had 11 and they had 22, we had 13 and they had 11, and we had 16 and they had 15. That's +11, -2, and -1, (avg +2.7) instead of -5. That's 7 more possessions we could be having. This is possible even without Luka and Austin, especially since Luka has a lot of TO's himself (4, 5 & 6 in the 3 Rockets games).

Anyway, I agree that my odds are on the optimistic side and higher than other people's. But they were wrong about Game 1. Everyone's odds should change after Game 1. Even if Durant comes back for Game 2. If anything, the regular season should have provided optimism about limiting Durant and beating the Rockets, since it is possible to limit Durant even without Luka and Austin. And I'm not saying that we for sure win or anything, just that it's 50-50 or better, whereas gambling odds and others are saying it's much worse than that.