Rob Pelinka Discussion: BBall Ops Pres + GM (AKA: Lucky Rob)

Everyone except AR

 

LOL …. I just figured that out days later this morning on my own.

 

Yes, sorry if I wasn't clear, but I was responding to this part by abeer: "i read a long piece a while back that detailed some of the internal fallout in dallas among the sports medicine/training staff, and i didn't love how this guy was characterized."

I was saying that I don't trust Nico firing this guy and I don't trust any media reports from the time about how the guy was characterized.

I don't have any real opinion, but in the absence of other evidence, I'm assuming that Holsopple is fine or good, having been named as the NBA's top strength and conditioning coach previously.

I guess, if you consider Nico being power hungry "getting into it."


https://sports.yahoo.com/article/nico-harrison-reportedly-fired-mavericks-140309003.html

 

Well… can’t argue with the enablers part, seeing as Luka wasn’t exactly a glowing testament to their athletic training work.

 

yeah, that was the article i think. there was more in there about screaming matches between him and the other dude that was retained, but i think what concerned me about it was that the piece was meant to bash harrison's move when part of me was like...it feels like these were luka's drinking buddies more than the team's trainers. and that culture went back before luka, when casey smith was nash and dirk's drinking buddy (like, for real, they were pals off the court). i think harrison (fairly) viewed that as unprofessional.

i'll repeat again that i think the harrison decision--which was disastrous--really did come down to a real difference in culture between him and luka. he didn't understand him and probably should have tried harder to do so. i'm guessing he's already realizing that with luka getting in better shape, but then again, dr. buss even said that if he knew shaq would get in shape, he wouldn't have moved him. sometimes, it takes something like that to happen for a change in mindset to occur.

anyway, this is all relevant to rob in that it's clear his philosophy is totally different. will it bring different results? we'll see. early returns are good, but i might have been happy to have let nico trim some of the problems for me, if that makes sense.

 

I didn't know much about Casey Smith before today. But apparently he kept Luka healthy for 5 years, averaging 69 games/season (or the equivalent during covid shortened seasons), and little more than a year after Nico fired him, Luka had his most injuries ever and missed the most games of his career. Smith then went to the Knicks, and he and his staff just won the NBA Trainers Association 2024-25 Athletic Training Staff of the Year award for making the Knicks the healthiest team this season, even under Thibodeau. The worst health this past season? The Dallas Mavericks.

All that, and he gets along with your superstars through multiple decades...and Nico wants to try to paint that as unprofessional? GTFOH.

So in the offseason of 2023, Nico decides he wants to fire the guy in person but finds out that Smith is "out of the state tending to his gravely ill mother in the final weeks of her life." So what does Nico do to a 19 year member of the organization with his dying mother? He fires him over video conference, with the reason of "being 'too negative,' according to sources briefed on the discussion who interpreted the vague reasoning to mean Smith wasn't enough of a yes-man."

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/mavericks-employee-fired-nico-harrison-224811030.html

This is probably true, and it's pure arrogance and stupidity on Nico's part. The guy is a buffoon who doesn't understand s***. He doesn't even understand the most basic part of the business and admitted it when he said he "didn't quite know it to what level" of how important Luka was to the fanbase.

 

i'd caution against crediting smith with the knicks's health or saying the mavs's issues were all due to his exit, but yes, he had a good reputation.

to be clear, i think harrison is wrong about luka and wrong about how to build the right culture in general.

if our FO thinks holsopple is bona fide, that's fine. if we hired him to appease luka without being confident about his qualifications, it's less good.

 

Credit where it's due. 3 huge additions in the offseason in LaRavia, Smart and Ayton. All bring stuff the team really needed and it's amazing to find those in a summer with very little flexibility and chips to play

I think the next 2 summers will be the most important in Rob's career. The next moves may dictate Luka's tenure here and overall his career. He gotta find a way to bring 2 dawgs to start in the wings for the years to come and that will set the core to be a top contender in the years to come

I fully trust him to get the job done

 

i'd feel more comfortable if walter convinced rob to bring in a high-level consultant like when the mavs brought in dennis lindsey.

you're right that these next two years are just absolutely critical. it's why i was not at all worried about the supposedly disappointing offseason this summer. we needed to set the table for next year and/or the year after.

more and more, i think it's this summer that is the most difficult and important one. we've done things right so far, but it's going to be tricky to navigate the lebron situation.

 

Yeah Bron will be tricky. But playing so well without him (and without what his money can bring) gives us a ton of leverage.

I think Bron might be the one more nervous. I just can't see a team he would want to play for pay him max money. I think only the Clippers may do it just to f with us. If they don't, Bron will have to accept a reduced salary. In that case, he may not do it with us either, just because of ego and status. It's a tough one for him, will be a very interesting story to follow

I'm sure we'll do him well because it's our culture, but hopefully we hold our ground and do what's best for the team. We certainly gave a huge step in that direction this summer

 

There could be an element of endowment bias where he will feel this is his team and as a result may not sign as low with us as he would for another team. Just a respect thing.

I’d explore 80m for 2 years which would give him 38m and 42m per. That’s 20m less than his max and a big compromise on his side. But if he has the chance to tie Jordan… you have to think he considers it. At that point it would be:

- 12 finals appearances
- 6 wins (4 as the man)
- 4 mvps
- 4 fmvps
- all time leading scorer
- 2nd on assists
- 23 time All Star
- 23 time all NBA

Pretty impressive and I assume he’ll be considered the GOAT or co-GOAT at that point.

 

As for what it does for us from a team building perspective:

Reaves (38m) / Smart (5.4m) / Bronny (2.1m)
- / LaRavia (6m)
Luka (49.6m) / Vando (12.4m)
Lebron (38m) / Rui (20m) / Adou (2.1m)
Ayton (8.1m) / Hayes (4.5m)

That’s 186.2m.

Cap is about 166m
First Apron is 209.6m
Second Apron is 222.3m

That puts us 20-24m below the first apron. If we can trade Gabe & Kleber for a piece in that range, that would put us in a good spot. A defensive minded 3&D player that can defend 1-3 would be ideal.

 

Ayton after this year if he plays well will want a significant raise?

 

I think there's a really big chance that Ayton leaves for more money elsewhere. I'm not sure if he could be at all enticed to stay playing with Luka and for a future payday. I think Smart could stay. Either way, if they stay another season each, we would have early bird rights and be able to offer them 175% of their contract.

For Ayton that would be 8.5m x 175% = $14.9m

For Smart that would be 5.4m x 175% = $9.45m

If we decided to stay below the first apron next year, with my above figures, we would have the MLE which is 15.1m - we could resign Ayton to that theoretically.

Reaves (38m) / Smart (5.4m) / Bronny (2.1m)
- / LaRavia (6m)
Luka (49.6m) / Vando (12.4m)
Lebron (38m) / Rui (20m) / Adou (2.1m)
Ayton (15.1m) / Hayes (4.5m)

We'd be about 16m below the First Apron resigning Lebron, Reaves, Rui & Ayton.

We really need that 5th starting piece in my opinion.

 

In goofy Jim Carry tone with his “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” bit …. so you’re telling me if we sign AR for (close to) 40M we’re NOT f***ed? LOL I thought that was “indisputable fact”.

 

Time to move on from LeBron and surround Luka and AR with the players they need.
LeBron is only getting asked back if we go all the way this year.
It’s been a (mostly) beneficial arrangement for both parties involved, but his body will just continue to break down with every game he plays.

 

if there's a consolidation trade that makes sense (2 expirings for a young long-term piece), i can see signing lebron to a two-year deal (though at lower than 40 per--nobody's going to offer close to that, imo). the trick then is getting ayton to trust that opting in or signing a non-bird 1+1 will be rewarded on the back end--because centers of his caliber simply aren't signing for that money right now. if it's between retaining ayton or lebron...i'm honestly going ayton. i realize it sounds insane, but lebron is 40 and hasn't played a game yet. that's nearly a third of the cap doing nothing right now, and it won't get better going forward.

my real hope is lebron pulls a dirk and says that he'll sign for whatever's left after we pull trades and FA and trusts we'll make him whole on the back end. nothing illegal there, just trust.

 

No hot dog stand?

 

I just think LeBron taking 38 is 20m below his max. I’m sure he feels like he is still one of the best players in the world when healthy. If we can convince him to take 30-35m that’s a clear win. It’s kind of the equivalent of the Duncan and Dirk deals in today’s dollars.

Would be a huge boon for us.