2025-26 Team Developments: Trades / Free Agents / News / Rumors / Ideas

Reaves is taking the baton from Bron this year whether he gives it wlingly or not.

 

Reaves is a 20-25 million a year player. I don’t give a damn what he does in December or March. Reaves has shown he can’t do the important things when it matters in the playoffs. If he can’t, you cannot pay him the 2nd most money on a team. Paying Reaves 42 million is the dumbest thing you could do on any team.

 

He’s worth whatever he gets. That’s how this works. It makes no difference what us fans feel he deserves. If he flounders this postseason, then he will be forced to take less, but if not, he’s getting around $35 mill per.

 

The new CBA rewards teams who can find value when building their team. What I mean by that is, can your player outperform his contract? There's 3 tangible ways to do this,

• get a max (not a supermax) player that is a top 7 player in the NBA - example: Luka
• get a rookie that can contribute right away - example: Wemby
• sign a player to a contract between the MLE and max that outperforms - example: Reaves

The inverse of these is true, a supermax really hurts, a bad rookie just takes up space that could go to a vet, paying someone 20% of the cap like Kuminga that doesn't play is terrible.

It would be irresponsible for us now to give Reaves a max - he isn't worth that based on his playoff performances. If we can sign him to 15-20% of the cap, we retain some value. Not as good as his current value, but still positive. That means signing him 33m starting year. That's roughly a 4year 152 million contract.

Likewise, I think Rui provides value if he is at 21.5m which is 13% of the cap - 4 years 100m.

I picked Lebron at 50m, but I'd offer him a 2 year 90m contract. Maybe 43m year 1 and 47m year 2 with a player option - something along those lines. It's enough not to be insulting to him. Lebron's max starts at 58m next year, so it's an 15m discount.

I haven't done my numbers. So I'll do them here now.

Cap is about 166m
First Apron is 209.6m
Second Apron is 222.3m

Guaranteed:

Luka: 49.6m
Vando: 12.4m
LaRavia: 6m
Bronny: 2.1m
Adou: 2.1m

Total: 72.2m (we have 93.8m left before the cap)

Player Options:

Ayton: 8.1m
Smart: 5.4m

Total: 85.7m - Assuming they both pick up their player options (80.3m left)

There is a good chance they both stay if we have a good season. Losing either would be disappointing.

Team Option:

Knecht: 4.2m

Assuming we waive Knecht or trade him this deadline

Cap Holds:

Lebron: 59.5m
Reaves: 19.9m (assuming he opts out straight away)
Rui: 27.4m
Gabe: 21.85m
Kleber: 20.9m
Hayes: 4.5m

I fully expect Gabe & Kleber to be traded at the deadline for a piece that brings back ~18-22m. Although maybe Rui goes out instead with one of them to try to bring back a 30m piece instead. We'd need a solid 3&D player to come back for that 1st. My favourite trade would be Knecht, Gabe, Kleber & a 1st for Malik Monk & Keon Ellis. Kings do it for the first, getting off of Monk's salary and not losing Ellis for nothing.

Let's assume we then resign Lebron to 43m, Reaves to 33m, Rui to 21.5m. We would only have the TPMLE to add a piece at 6.1m and vet minimums.

Ellis would need to be resigned and reports indicate he would be around 20-24m and Monk would be at 20.1m next year. This would put us at:

Reaves (33m) / Smart (5.4m) / Bronny (2.1m)
Ellis (21.5) / Monk (20.1m)
Luka (49.6m) / Vando (12.4m) / LaRavia (6m)
Lebron (43m) / Rui (21.5m) / Adou (2.1m)
Ayton (8.1m) / Hayes (4.5m)

+ TPMLE (6.1m) go for a big

Total Roster: $235.4

We'd be about 26m over the luxury tax threshold, meaning the luxury tax payment would be about 80m-ish. This is where our new owner with deep pockets comes in handy.

That's a solid team and I think we'd have 2-3 years to win a ring before Lebron rides off into the sunset (this year and one more most likely). We could then package Monk & Rui as expirings, one of the young guys plus 2-3 firsts for another running mate for Luka.

 

We need to get under the secomd apron though. Its projievted to be around 222 million next season, so you would have to shed some more salary. By all means, sign AR to less than the max, if possible. I think we end up landing on about 37-38 million per year. He doesnt want to leave
But, all im saying is, Lakers should prepare to pay the max, if needed. I think at the end of the day, Lebron will take just enough of a paycut for the Lakers to get under the 2nd apron, like he did last time, so yeah that might be around 45-50 million. 21.5 is too much for Rui, imo. We need to use that money else where. Also, Ayton probably gets a new deal worth 15-18 million starting.

 

Why do we need to get under the second apron in my scenario? To save our cheap owners on luxury tax?

We now have one of the richest owners in the league, the goal is to win a championship. If you can swing a trade for Ellis and Monk, you use everyone’s birds rights and resign them; Lebron, Reaves, Rui, Ellis etc. then hope Ayton and Smart pick up their options to contend and we grab someone with the tax payers MLE.

I don’t see why we would try to cut our wage slots when we’re so close to competing. Most likely LeBron is done in 1-2 years. Time to try to win a ring or two.

 

i like the plan, but again it requires a bunch of things i'm not sure are likely. like, if ayton and smart opt in, it meant their seasons (and probably ours) were bad, right? the ayton piece is key because if this summer's market is any indication, quality bigs aren't going for tpmle.

 

I like your thinking, man. Its very optimistic. I don't think they have a problem paying the luxury tax now, but going the 2nd apron is very crippling for NBA teams. It's an unofficial hard cap, really. I think it's a safe assumption that the owners will try to stay under it, for team operations reasons. In regards to Reaves getting a lower deal, I have come around to 35 million or so, considering players like Bridges and Brunson have signed for similar amounts, and Murphey and Herb got bargain deals. And, Lebron has shown willingness for flexibility in the past, to stay under the apron, if it means improving his chances for that elusive 5th or 6th ring.

 

The Wiggins trade would solve a lot of problems.

 

If we just swap out Rui + Knecht + 31 1st (protected) for a Thybulle + Josh Green + 2nd, or something like that would work too.

 

We have to be willing to over-pay a little with that 2031 1st.

 

I don’t think the FO is going to automatically pay LeBron if he wants to come back. They will be trying to get that next big name to pair with Luka. However, I will understand if they bring him back, but I would only on a year to year basis. It’s just too risky to pay him multiple years now.

 

It will be interesting to see how he has transformed his game this season. He might be a catch-and-shoot power forward. Possibly being second on the team in three-pointers made per game, behind Luka. I mean, it would be huge if he were to make 3/8 threes per game at 38%. Someone who specializes in that is not really commanding a max contract, so I understand from that perspective. Sort of like Melo's final season with the Lakers. He was very efficient in that way.

 

I don’t see him taking a lesser role and lesser pay, like a big paycut. He’s always said that he would never be the guy to take that huge paycut and I believe him.
After this season, maybe he takes that haircut to return to Cleveland, to wrap it all up? I think this is the only scenario in which his salary gets dramatically reduced.

 

Maybe I’m being naive, but Smart strikes me as the guy who wants to compete his last few years.

Ayton, I’m not sure about, but I think he wants to play with Luka, so if he sticks around, we can get his bird rights and resign him to a better contract. He seems like a sensitive guy. We’ll see though, if he is really into setting screens, defending and rebounding above numbers, you know he is serious about winning. If he is serious about winning, he may jsut stay.

If we lose one of them, we have the TPMLE to replace one - most likely the big - and have to rely on a vet minimum to get a backup guard like this years Melton or CP3.

 

I don't think it's optimistic at all - every year we have teams that pay a 80m+ a year in luxury taxes when they're close to competing. Here are the teams paying massive taxes this decade:

20-21: BKN 101m, GSW 117m
21-22: LAC 83m, BKN 97m, GSW 170m
22-23: BOS 70m, MIL 83m, LAC 140m, GSW 163m
23-24: LAC 142m, GSW 185m
24-25: MIN 93m, PHX 152m
25-26: GSW 64m, CLE 164m

I left out alot of the 40-70m teams. Already for next year we have Cleveland with 145m in luxury taxes and OKC with 178m. I don't see why we wouldn't be happy to pay luxury taxes on being 25.8m into the luxury tax bracket. Even as a tax repeater, we'd be paying 120m in luxury taxes which isn't over the top in comparison to other teams.

To put it into perspective, Golden State has paid huge luxury taxes for every year of Curry's prime. I expect our new owners to do the same for Luka. Likewise Balmer and the Clippers don't shirk from paying luxury tax every year, Brooklyn, Boston and the Knicks pay it yearly. Then other examples of teams paying it that you wouldn't think would be open to it but pay large taxes when they're close to competing are: OKC, Cleveland, Phoenix, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Dallas - heck even Indiana was about to pay a huge amount but avoided it due to Haliburton's injury. Orlando is next up, so we'll see.

The way they've set up the CBA now is that the tax on the first apron isn't so bad, while being above the second apron is really hurtful. Moving forward the trick is to max out to the 2nd Apron yearly but stay under it, and then the years where you have a real shot to compete, you break through it for a season or two. It's basically gaining a competitive advantage with the ability to out spend other teams and take the punishment for a season or two.

 

We don't really have a lot to trade for a second piece at the moment. If Giannis gets traded this year, we won't win that sweepstakes. Jokic said he wants to be at Denver for life. We don't want the old stars; KD, AD, Curry, Leonard, Harden, Butler. All the young stars aren't available because their teams still want to compete, so we can forget about SGA, Ant, Hali, Mitchell, Brunson, Tatum, Wemby, Cade.

We'd have to kind of wait to 2027-28 season to have a lot of firepower. At that point who are we going for Siakam, Banchero, Jaylen Brown, Booker, Mobley, KAT, Adebayo, JJJ? We'll get someone, maybe Adebayo is the best option.

 

so mad boston and gs got rings by blowing past the second apron before the real team-building costs came through. i really think that if walter owned the team five years ago, we might have one or two more rings, tbh. we let so much cash come off the books after the russ dump. there was a window there that is closed now.

 

We let go of a number of decent players, Brook Lopez, Zubac, Beasley, heck we even let go of Lonnie Walker that we could retain as a backup or third stringer.

What I will say is, they’ve made the salary slots a lot harder to use these days with how difficult it is to trade, in most cases, salaries need to almost match up perfectly. So you can’t just stock pile money and then use it in trades like before the current CBA.

I think that’s why a trade for Ellis is beneficial, or players that are on small contracts but you gain their bird rights. There isn’t a large amount of these that are gettable though in the NBA.

 

We’ll see how Old Man holds up this season, but I would rather stockpile mid tier assets and develop them than continue to pay LeBron for only effecting one end of the court. There’s players who ask out every single season that nobody foresees.
When these do become available, and we are paying LeBron so much of our cap, we won’t have enough assets available to stack up that will be sent out.