Austin Reaves Discussion: Overachiever Who Underachieved

https://x.com/Tim_NBA/status/1923387203222114794?t=xoxBh3RbBSzNpj0lATEtZg&s=19

https://x.com/Tim_NBA/status/1923387851015626880?t=gyqJCxB7iNktPPwlCTzJYg&s=19

 

Claxton seems to be the candidate that fits this mold the most. He is switchy and doesn't commit as many fouls as some of these other rim runners out there. Only like 2.3 per 36 minutes. Gafford gets about 4.5, for example. Hayes gets also gets around 4.5.

 

pika beat me to it, but i don't think we spend any more than vet min on a center who can't defend outside the paint. jj would rather just play rui or DFS at center.

my point was think a player of that quality, not daniel gafford or his ilk. we already tried starting a backup in hayes. gafford isn't as big an upgrade there as people think, imo. again, capela should be cheaper and might actually still be better.

 

Cranjis McBasketball
@Tim_NBA
·
3h

Here are the bigs that generated about as many wins as Austin Reaves this regular season (+/- 0.5 WAR): Bam Gobert JJJ Sengun Wemby

Wings: Siakam Guards: Brunson Cade Dame Trae Young ........ Austin had a hell of a year

 

I really do think we should try to sign Capela. We are projected to only have the 5.7 m taxpayer mle, but maybe lebron takes less money and we could ensure that we could afford him. Capela is not what he used to be, but he still may command 7-10 million or so. He would be our back up at the 5. Claxton would be our trade target for starting 5.

 

Yeah, Claxton AND Capela is my "realistic pipe dream" for the offseason. I also think Cam Johnson is out of Brooklyn this summer. He has a relationship with JJ's pod/company, is a smart player and will likely go to a contender. Him and Claxton make the money work more difficult, but I still see him as a considerable upgrade to Rui.

But a starting 5 of Luka, Reaves, Cam, Bron, Claxton with DFS, Capela, Goodwin and 2 capable vet mins (we will be a top choice in this market) is a pretty good team

 

i feel like capela can be had for MUCH less (we'll see, i may be wrong), and i also think he still moves well enough to defend out to the three point line credibly.

okongwu just developed past him, which is good for atlanta, but he was still quite useful on the floor last year.

i just wonder if a promised starting spot (i'd do this) and playing for a contender and glamor franchise might be enough to sway capela to a 1+1 tpmle PO deal. i honestly think it's a really attractive deal for him, as if he balls out, he's seen people will pay our short-term successes (e.g., monk). if he doesn't, he opts in and reaps a one-year full MLE when i'm not sure how many teams are going to offer more total guaranteed money for him.

wait...this is the reaves thread.

yes, we should do the above and keep reaves. use knecht, expirings, and 1sts to get legit POA defender who's playable on offense in the playoffs.

 

Yeah I'm talking here because I'm still catching up to some playoff games and don't know the results. For some reason, the "Trade" topic is full of playoff spoilers ahah

On Capela, yeah he's not very switchable but that's why I want him AND Claxton. So we can have 2 different centers to deploy each night and go in clutch time with whichever is working the best in that game. But it has to be for cheap, I don't see a center like that eating a good chunk of the cap space

I agree with abeer that a contract like that is very enticing. He saw what Luka did to other centers' career. Gafford was unknown before going to Dallas.

 

I'm still unsure how to run a team with Luka at the 1, Reaves at the 2 and Lebron at the 4 and be a top tier team defensively in the playoffs.

Reaves is actually decent on that end but his athleticism has a ceiling. Luka is smart and does well enough, but gosh did the Wolves hunt him relentlessly, he had the most blowbys in a playoff game. Lebron has been good defensively since we traded for Luka, but he gets beat off the dribble by guards these days.

The only real way to sure up the team is to have two ELITE defenders in the starting lineup - example: a Herb Jones type for his POA defence and a big that can give you decent rim protection and switching ability.

There's a part of me that says, well maybe you trade or bench Reaves for the balance we need.

 

Getting Cam would really have us leaning into our offense. There is something to be said for great offense beats great defense, but I would still be concerned about poa defender. Although Cam is a slightly above average defender, it's still not really his expertise though.

 

I’ve decided I would only give up Austin(plus trade ballast)for JJJ or Bam. Even then, I would be sad to see him go.
Since I’m 99% sure Miami or Memphis won’t go for it, I think we are safe.

 

I don't believe any team, has a "star" they are willing to give up for Austin Reaves. I don't think anyone is actively thinking about pursuing Austin, specifically in a trade either. Our valuation of him, probably doesn't align with his valuation, by other teams.

That being said, he can be a star in his role here.

 

Yeah there’s definitely a role for Reaves here. His salary for next year is a steal. He sounds committed to working harder, improving, and seems to genuinely love hooping. I’d keep him, knowing his limitations and assuming we add pieces to become above average defensively. AR could also excel in a 6th man role playing 30+ minutes a game, same as now.

That being said if I’m Rob Pelinka I know Reaves is testing free agency next summer where he might get a max contract? I love Austin but not for $40M per year. I hate this but if there was a time to sell high on AR it would be right now. He’s an expiring contract. Rob probably listening to offers packages. AR is our guy and I’d be upset if the return was anything less than filling exactly the needs we’re missing. My perfect scenario is him taking below market value to resign with the Lakers long term.

 

Mine too, but should we really expect him to take less?
I bet we end up signing him for something close to his max when the time comes and I won’t complain one bit.

 

If we give him 40-42mil a year, i will complain. Last time, other teams weren't exactly lining up to sign him (that's why we got him on a discount).

 

not a useful point, as no teams have a "star" they want to give up, period. IF a team finds themselves in a position where they have to give up a star, reaves would be a very high quality piece coming back. like, if devin vassell is off limits in a giannis trade, doesn't a guy like reaves become one of the best possible win-now returns? and i'm not saying we are or should be in the giannis sweepstakes, but reaves is definitely a valuable enough piece to move for a star. i'm still shocked he didn't go to dallas for luka.

here i agree. i'm sure plenty of teams would like to trade us role players or expirings and firsts for him, though.

and i also question whether folks are lining up to spend 1/3 of their cap on him. though our real danger is if someone fred van vleets us and offers him HUGE money for a couple years. this is how you use cap space in the apron era, imo.

he'd be the third-best player on a lot of teams; maybe most of them?

less than max? yes.

i know it's probably not going to happen, based on reports, but i actually don't think he'd be stupid to accept a max extension (20 per) instead of play out the year and test free agency. lot of risk there.

but assuming he refuses the extension (and i get why), i'm still not sure it's likely to be an issue of a bidding war. just not enough teams have space. you need a unique situation like houston with fvv for something like that to happen. so we'll probably end up working something out with him ahead of free agency that exceeds what he turned down in the extension but doesn't, like, double it or anything crazy.

tl;dr: reaves isn't getting a max.

 

If Reaves is at worst the 3rd best player on any team he joins, he’d be around a top 60 players in the NBA. Contract wise that would put him around 30m per year when his extension kicks in.

If Reaves sees himself as one of the better 2nd options on any team, he’d probably consider himself a top 30-40 player in the NBA. And that’s max territory.

 

He's not at worst the 3rd best player on any team though. Austin is my guy, but if he thinks he's going to get 30-40M offers on the open market, he's going to be in for a rude awakening.